Uncertainty and its consequences in social policy evaluation and evidence-based decision-making

The methodologies of RCTs and systematic reviews imply a high standard for the level of rigour in evidence-based decision making. When these standards are not met, how should decision makers act? The question addressed by the speaker is: What level of certainty is required for which kinds of decisions? He argues that decisions should be made based on a consideration of both the uncertainty and consequences of all possible outcomes. A framework will be presented for making decisions on partial evidence. The framework has implications for the generation of evidence as well. A more systematic analysis of uncertainty and its consequences can improve approaches to decision-making and to the generation of evidence.

This lecture is part of a monthly lecture series organized by CEDIL and the Centre for Evaluation, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. If you would like to find out more about CEDIL’s work, sign up to their mailing list here.